The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.64%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.23%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.53%. 

Inventory indexes right now are buying and selling greater on a good core CPI report of +0.2% m/m and on favorable commerce information after Treasury Secretary Bessent stated US-China commerce negotiations are in a “very good place.”

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At this time’s CPI report was thought of internet favorable for the markets because of the barely weaker-than-expected +0.2% m/m improve within the core CPI, which was pushed by decrease automotive costs.  Nevertheless, there have been some scattered indicators of upside stress from tariffs, and that stress is predicted to extend within the coming months.  Additionally, each the headline and core CPI studies on a year-over-year foundation rose from Could.

Particularly, the June US CPI rose +0.3% m/m, which was in step with market expectations, whereas the year-over-year determine of +2.7% was barely worse than expectations of +2.6% and was up from Could’s +2.4%.  The June US core CPI rose +0.2% m/m, which was barely higher than expectations of +0.3%.  On a year-over-year foundation, the June US core CPI was in step with expectations at +2.9% y/y however rose from Could’s +2.8%.

There was some optimistic commerce information right now after Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that US-China commerce talks are in a “very good place” and that the US-China deadline is versatile and instructed market members “not to worry about August 12.”  Mr. Bessent confirmed that the Trump administration has instructed Nvidia {that a} license for the sale of its superior H20 GPU chips to Chinese language companies will likely be granted and is “all part of a mosaic” within the US-China negotiations. He additionally stated he hopes to satisfy with Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng in August.

Shares have been undercut by latest US commerce information.  Over the weekend, President Trump introduced that the US will impose 30% tariffs on US imports from the European Union and Mexico, efficient August 1.  Mr. Trump stated final Thursday {that a} 35% tariff on some Canadian merchandise would take impact on August 1, up from the present 25%.  Final week, Mr. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports, which can embrace semi-finished items, and acknowledged that drug firms might face tariffs as excessive as 200% on imports in the event that they don’t relocate manufacturing to the US inside the subsequent 12 months.

At this time’s July Empire manufacturing index report of 5.5 was stronger than expectations of -9.2, and was up from June’s stage of -16.0.

The worth of Bitcoin (^BTSUSD) is down practically -2% right now resulting from some lengthy liquidation stress following the latest rally on hopes for extra favorable crypto regulation from Washington.  The US Home Committee on Methods and Means plans to carry an oversight subcommittee listening to on July 16 entitled, “Making America the Crypto Capital of the World,” which can result in extra crypto-friendly laws.

The markets this week will deal with any recent information on tariffs or commerce offers.  On Wednesday, June PPI last demand is predicted to ease to +2.5% y/y from +2.6% in Could, and June core PPI is predicted to ease to +2.7% y/y from +3.0% y/y in Could.  Additionally, on Wednesday, June manufacturing manufacturing is predicted to fall by -0.1% m/m.  Lastly, on Wednesday, the Fed will launch its Beige E book.  On Thursday, June retail gross sales are anticipated to climb by +0.1% m/m and +0.3% ex-autos, and weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to climb by +7,000 to 234,000.  Additionally, on Thursday, the July Philadelphia Fed enterprise outlook survey is predicted to climb +3.0 factors to -1.0, and the July NAHB housing market index is predicted to rise +1 to 33.  On Friday, June housing begins are anticipated to climb +3.3% m/m to 1.298 million, and June constructing permits are anticipated to slide -0.6% m/m to 1.386 million.  Additionally, the College of Michigan’s US July client sentiment index is predicted to climb +0.8 to 61.5.

Earnings season started in earnest this week with a deal with massive financial institution earnings outcomes.  Key earnings studies right now embrace Blackrock, Citigroup, JP Morgan, NY Financial institution of Mellon, Wells Fargo, and State Avenue. Key earnings studies Wednesday embrace Financial institution of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and United Airways.  Key studies Thursday embrace PepsiCorp, Abbott, US Bancorp, GE Fifth Third, and GE.  Key studies Friday embrace Schwab and American Categorical.

Bloomberg Intelligence knowledge present that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 firms is for an increase of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest improve in two years.  Additionally, solely six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to put up a rise in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, in line with Yardeni Analysis. 

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp fee reduce at 3% on the July 29-30 FOMC assembly and at 65% on the following assembly on Sep 16-17.

Abroad inventory markets right now are combined.   The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.22%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.42%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed up +0.55%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) right now are up +2 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield is down by -2.4 bp at 4.409%.  T-note costs are seeing help right now from the marginally weaker-than-expected June US core CPI report of +0.2% m/m versus expectations of +0.3%.  On the bearish aspect, the 10-year breakeven expectations fee right now rose to a 4.75-month excessive and is at present up +0.3 bp at 2.408%.

Additionally on the bearish aspect for US bond costs, the Trump administration’s marketing campaign in opposition to Fed Chair Powell continued right now, fueling concern amongst bond vigilantes in regards to the Fed’s independence and the opportunity of politically pushed rate of interest cuts that might be inflationary.  US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Fed Chair Powell ought to step down as a Fed Governor when his time period as Chairman ends in Could 2026, in step with custom.  Mr. Bessent additionally acknowledged that he’s a part of a proper course of that has already begun to determine who President Trump will appoint as the brand new Chairman when Mr. Powell’s time period ends in Could 2026, or earlier “for cause,” primarily based on assaults on how Mr. Powell has dealt with the renovation of the Fed’s constructing in Washington.

European authorities bond yields right now are decrease.  The ten-year German bund yield is down -5.3 bp at 2.677%.  The ten-year UK gilt yield is down -2.2 bp at 4.577%.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 2% for a -25 bp fee reduce by the ECB on the July 24 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

The Magnificent Seven shares are all buying and selling greater right now, apart from a small decline in Meta.

Chip shares are doing nicely right now after the Trump administration indicated that it’ll loosen US restrictions on chip gross sales to China.  Nvidia (NVDA is up greater than +4% on the information.  Superior Micro Units (AMD) is up greater than +8% and Arm Holdings (ARM) is up greater than +2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed shares are combined right now as bitcoin (^BTCUSD) fell practically -2% on some lengthy liquidation stress after posting a brand new report excessive on Monday. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down greater than -2%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) is down -0.9%, however Coinbase World (COIN) is up +0.5%. 

BlackRock (BLK) is down greater than -6% after it reported that long-term asset inflows had been under market expectations. 

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is down -0.4% after it raised its full-year expense steering.

Copper miners are buying and selling decrease right now after Morgan Stanley downgraded the sector’s prospects resulting from expectations that fifty% tariffs will result in lowered US demand for copper merchandise.  Freeport McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) are down about -2%. 

Earnings Experiences (7/15/2025)

Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Financial institution of New York Mellon Corp/The (BK), Blackrock Inc (BLK), Citigroup Inc (C), JB Hunt Transport Providers Inc (JBHT), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), Pinnacle Monetary Companions In (PNFP), State Avenue Corp (STT), Solar Communities Inc (SUI), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC).

On the date of publication,

Wealthy Asplund

didn’t have (both instantly or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions.

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