The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Monday closed up +0.02%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.14%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.36%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.02%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.35%.

Inventory indexes on Monday settled principally increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new file highs.  Constructive commerce information pushed shares increased on Monday after the European Union (EU) and the US reached a commerce deal on Sunday, which is able to see the EU face tariffs of 15% on most of its exports, decrease than the earlier threats from President Trump of tariffs as excessive as 50%.  Shares additionally rose after the South China Morning Submit reported that the US and China are anticipated to increase their tariff truce by one other 90 days from August 12, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese language Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm.

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Shares fell again from their finest ranges on Monday after poor demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion public sale of 5-year T-notes pushed bond yields increased and sparked lengthy liquidation in equities.  Bond yields additionally rose after the Treasury raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $1.01 trillion from an April estimate of $554 billion, which may immediate the Treasury to spice up its gross sales of presidency debt securities. 

Monday’s US financial information was supportive for shares after the Jul Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook survey rose +13.6 to a 6-month excessive of 0.9, stronger than expectations of -9.0.

The markets this week will deal with any information of recent commerce offers earlier than Friday’s deadline. On Tuesday, the Jun JOLTS job openings are anticipated to say no by -219,000 to 7.55 million.  Additionally on Tuesday, the Convention Board’s US Jul client confidence index is predicted to climb by +3.0 to 96.0.  As well as, the 2-day FOMC assembly begins on Tuesday, and the Fed is predicted to maintain the fed funds goal vary unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%. On Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is predicted to climb by +80,000.  Additionally on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is predicted to broaden by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE value index is predicted to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1. On Thursday, preliminary weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment value index is predicted to extend by 0.8%.  Additionally, Jun private spending is predicted to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun private earnings is predicted to rise +0.3% m/m.  As well as, the Jun core PCE value index, the Fed’s most well-liked inflation gauge, is predicted to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.  Lastly, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is predicted to extend by +1.6 to 42.0.  On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to extend by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment charge is predicted to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%.  Additionally, Jul common hourly earnings are anticipated +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. As well as, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is predicted to extend by +0.2 to 49.5.  Lastly, the College of Michigan Jul client sentiment index is predicted to be unrevised at 61.8. 

The markets are awaiting President Trump’s August 1 deadline for commerce offers to keep away from excessive tariffs.  On July 16, Mr. Trump introduced that he intends to ship a tariff letter to greater than 150 international locations, notifying them that their tariff charges might be 10% or 15%, efficient August 1.  As an replace, Mr. Trump final Wednesday stated, “We’ll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” a sign that the ground for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he wouldn’t go beneath 15%. 

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp charge minimize at 3% on the Tue/Wed FOMC assembly and 63% on the following assembly on September 16-17.

This week kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with 38% of the shares within the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the quantity reported final week. The earnings outcomes of Magnificent Seven members will likely be entrance and heart, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.  Early outcomes present that S&P 500 earnings are on observe to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, higher than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, based on Bloomberg Intelligence.  With a few third of S&P 500 corporations having reported, round 82% exceeded revenue estimates. 

Abroad inventory markets on Monday settled blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a 2-week excessive and closed down -0.27%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.12%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed down -1.10%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed down -7 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.404%.  T-notes are below strain from at present’s rally within the S&P 500 to a brand new file excessive, which reduces safe-haven demand for T-notes. Additionally, provide pressures are weighing on T-notes because the Treasury auctioned $69 billion of 2-year T-notes and $70 billion of 5-year T-notes on Tuesday.  T-notes fell to their lows on Monday afternoon because of weak demand for the Treasury’s $70 billion public sale of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of two.31, beneath the 10-auction common of two.39.  Losses in T-notes have been restricted after the US and EU agreed on a commerce deal, which eases issues about inflation.

European authorities bond yields on Monday have been blended.  The ten-year German bund yield fell -2.9 bp to 2.689%. The ten-year UK gilt yield rose +1.2 bp to 4.647%.

ECB Governing Council member Kazimir stated the ECB shouldn’t minimize rates of interest in September except there’s proof of a serious deterioration within the economic system.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 17% for a -25 bp charge minimize by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Chip shares rose Monday after the EU and the US reached a commerce deal.  Superior Micro Units (AMD) closed up greater than +4% to steer gainers within the Nasdaq 100.  Additionally, On Semiconductor Corp (ON) closed up greater than +3%, and KLA Corp (KLAC), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Marvell Know-how (MRVL), Texas Devices (TXN), Utilized Supplies (AMAT), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) closed up greater than +2%.  As well as, Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Analysis (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Microchip Know-how (MCHP), and Qualcomm (QCOM) closed up greater than +1%. 

Power shares and vitality service suppliers rallied Monday after the worth of WTI crude oil rose greater than +2% to a 1-week excessive.  Diamondback Power (FANG) closed up greater than +4% and   Devon Power (DVN) closed up greater than +3%.  Additionally, APA Corp (APA), ConocoPhillips (COP),  and Phillips 66 (PSX) closed up greater than +2%.  As well as, Haliburton (HAL), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Baker Hughes (BKR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Power (VLO) closed up greater than +1%.

LNG shares moved increased on Monday after the EU dedicated to huge purchases of American vitality merchandise as a part of the EU-US commerce deal.  Enterprise World (VG) closed up greater than +4%, and Cheniere Power (LNG) and EOG Assets (EOG) closed up greater than +1%. 

Mining shares have been below strain Monday after gold and copper costs tumbled to 2-1/2 week lows.  Newmont (NEM) closed down greater than -3% and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) closed down greater than -2%.

Tremendous Micro Pc (SMCI) closed up greater than +10% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 on optimism that demand for its AI servers will stay sturdy.

Nike (NKE) closed up greater than +3% to steer gainers within the Dow Jones Industrials after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the inventory to chubby from impartial with a value goal of $93.

Weatherford Worldwide Plc (WFRD) closed up greater than +3% after Piper Sandler upgraded the inventory to chubby from impartial with a value goal of $73. 

Revvity (RVTY) closed down greater than -8% after reducing its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $4.85-$4.95 from a earlier estimate of $4.90-$5.00, the midpoint beneath the consensus of $4.93. 

Centene (CNC) closed down greater than -5% after Cantor Fitzgerald downgraded the inventory to impartial from chubby.

Coinbase World (COIN) closed down greater than -3% after Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. downgraded the inventory to impartial from purchase.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) closed down greater than -2% as analysts notice a possible danger to the corporate’s HIV preventative medicine after HHS Secretary Kennedy was reported to be planning the dismissal of an advisory panel that determines what preventive well being measures insurers should cowl.

Accenture Plc (ACN) closed down greater than -2% after HSBC initiated protection on the inventory with a advice of scale back and a value goal of $240. 

Cisco Programs (CSCO) closed down greater than -1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the inventory to inline from outperform. 

Earnings Stories (7/29/2025)

American Tower Corp (AMT), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Boeing Co/The (BA), Reserving Holdings Inc (BKNG), BXP Inc (BXP), Caesars Leisure Inc (CZR), Service World Corp (CARR), CBRE Group Inc (CBRE), Corning Inc (GLW), DTE Power Co (DTE), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Digital Arts Inc (EA), Essex Property Belief Inc (ESS), Develop Power Corp (EXE), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Incyte Corp (INCY), Johnson Controls Worldwide (JCI), Merck & Co Inc (MRK), Mondelez Worldwide Inc (MDLZ), Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Procter & Gamble Co/The (PG), Regency Facilities Corp (REG), Republic Companies Inc (RSG), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Seagate Know-how Holdings PL (STX), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK), Starbucks Corp (SBUX), Sysco Corp (SYY), Teradyne Inc (TER), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Visa Inc (V).

On the date of publication,

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