The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed down by -0.01%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down by -0.08%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up by +0.01%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.03%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.02%. 

Inventory indexes on Monday settled little modified, pressured by greater bond yields.  Final Thursday’s bearish July PPI reported dampened hypothesis that the Fed may reduce rates of interest as quickly as subsequent month’s FOMC assembly.  The ten-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week excessive Monday at 4.35% and completed up +2 bp to 4.34%.

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Shares have been additionally weighed down by uncertainty concerning Monday’s assembly between European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy with President Trump in Washington to debate potential phrases to finish the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.  The result may have macroeconomic implications concerning tariffs and oil costs, and will, after all, have important penalties for European safety. As well as, considerations about how shoppers are holding up within the early days of President Trump’s tariffs additionally weighed on shares forward of earnings outcomes this week from a few of the largest US retailers, together with Walmart, Goal, and House Depot.

Monday’s US financial information was adverse for shares after the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell -1 to 32, weaker than expectations of a rise to 34.

The main target of the markets this week might be on any new tariff information and indicators of progress towards a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders assembly President Trump in Washington on Monday.  On Tuesday, Jul housing begins are anticipated to fall -1.6% m/m to 1.300 million, and Jul constructing permits are anticipated to fall -0.4% m/m to 1.388 million. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC assembly might be launched.  On Thursday, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed enterprise outlook survey is anticipated to fall to six.7 from 15.9 in July.  Additionally, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is anticipated to stay unchanged at 49.8.  As well as, Jul present house gross sales are anticipated to fall -0.3% m/m to three.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the financial outlook on the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Gap, Wyoming. 

Relating to tariffs, President Trump stated final Friday, “I’ll be setting tariffs next week and the week after on steel and on, I would say chips – chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting sometime next week, week after.” Mr. Trump final week stated he deliberate a 100% tariff on semiconductors however would exempt corporations that transfer chip manufacturing to the US.  Mr. Trump additionally talked about 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.

In different latest tariff information, Mr. Trump final Tuesday prolonged the tariff truce with China for one more 90 days till November.  On August 6, Mr. Trump introduced that he’ll double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the present 25% tariff, resulting from India’s purchases of Russian oil.  On August 5, Mr. Trump stated that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports could be introduced “within the next week or so.” In response to Bloomberg Economics, the typical US tariff will rise to fifteen.2% if charges are applied as introduced, up from 13.3% earlier, and considerably greater than the two.3% in 2024 earlier than the tariffs have been introduced.

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp charge reduce at 84% on the September 16-17 FOMC assembly, down from 93% final Thursday.  The markets are discounting the possibilities at 51% for a second -25 bp charge reduce on the following assembly on October 28-29.

Earnings stories point out that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on observe to rise +9.1% y/y, a lot better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and probably the most in 4 years, based on Bloomberg Intelligence.  With over 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of corporations exceeded revenue estimates. 

Abroad inventory markets on Monday settled blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -0.26%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 10-year excessive and closed up +0.85%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 rallied to a brand new file excessive and closed up +0.77%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Monday closed down -2.5 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield rose +2.0 bp to 4.336%.  Sep T-notes fell to a 2-week low on Monday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2-week excessive of 4.351%.  T-notes are below strain on concern that final week’s bearish US July CPI and PPI stories may preserve the Fed from chopping rates of interest at subsequent month’s FOMC assembly.

Losses in T-notes have been restricted after Monday’s information confirmed the Aug NAHB housing market index unexpectedly declined.  T-notes are additionally supported by a rise in safe-haven demand after there was no breakthrough within the Trump-Putin summit final Friday to finish the conflict in Ukraine. 

European authorities bond yields on Monday have been blended.  The ten-year German bund yield fell -2.5 bp to 2.763%. The ten-year UK gilt yield rose to a 2.5-month excessive of 4.748% and completed up by +4.2 bp to 4.738%.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 5% for a -25 bp charge reduce by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Pure gasoline producing shares retreated Monday after Roth Capital Companions downgraded the sector on considerations that oversupply will preserve costs depressed.  EQT Corp (EQT) closed down greater than -4% to guide losers within the S&P 500.  Additionally, Comstock Assets (CRK) closed down greater than -6%, and Antero Assets (AR) closed down greater than -5%.  As well as, Corterra Power (CTRA) and Vary Assets (RRC) closed down greater than -3%, and Broaden Power (EXE) closed down greater than -2%. 

Intel (INTC) closed down greater than -3% to guide losers within the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is in discussions to take a ten% stake within the firm, a transfer that will make the US authorities the corporate’s largest shareholder.

Meta Platforms (META) closed down greater than -2% after the Info e-newsletter reported that the corporate is planning the fourth restructuring of its AI group within the final six months.

Northern Oil & Fuel (NOG) closed down greater than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the inventory to underweight from equal weight.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed down greater than -1% after Walleye Capital LLC reported a internet quick place within the inventory of 5.43 million shares, or 0.51% of the whole shares as of final Friday.

Dayforce (DAY) closed up greater than +25% to guide gainers within the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Thoma Bravo is in talks to accumulate the corporate. 

Duolingo (DUOL) closed up greater than +12% after Citigroup initiated protection on the inventory with a advice of purchase and a worth goal of $400.

EPAM Techniques (EPAM) closed up greater than +4% after TD Cowen upgraded the inventory to purchase from maintain with a worth goal of $205. 

CVS Well being (CVS) closed up greater than +2% after UBS upgraded the inventory to purchase from impartial with a worth goal of $79.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed up greater than +1% to guide gainers within the Dow Jones industrials, including to final Friday’s +11% rally, after a 13F submitting confirmed that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and different traders purchased shares within the firm throughout Q2.

Earnings Stories(8/19/2025)

Amer Sports activities Inc (AS), House Depot Inc/The (HD), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Keysight Applied sciences Inc (KEYS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).

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