July arabica espresso (KCN25) Friday closed up +0.40 (+0.10%), and July ICE robusta espresso (RMN25) closed down -39 (-0.74%).

Espresso costs on Friday settle combined.  Greenback weak spot Friday was supportive of espresso costs.  Nonetheless, positive factors have been restricted by indicators of bigger international espresso provides after the USDA forecast 2025/26 espresso manufacturing in Honduras, Central America’s largest espresso producer, would climb +5.1% y/y to five.8 million luggage.  Additionally, consulting agency Safras & Mercado raised its Brazil 2025/26 espresso manufacturing estimate to 65.51 million luggage from an earlier estimate of 62.45 million luggage.

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The espresso stock state of affairs has additionally improved, which is a bearish value issue.  ICE-monitored robusta espresso inventories rose to a 3-month excessive Friday of 4,418 tons.  Additionally,  ICE-monitored arabica espresso inventories rose to a 2-3/4 month excessive Wednesday of 844,473 luggage.

On Tuesday, espresso costs have been undercut after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, raised its Brazil 2025 espresso manufacturing estimate to 55.7 million luggage from a January estimate of 51.81 million luggage.

Demand considerations are bearish for espresso costs.  A number of international commodity importers, together with Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez Worldwide, mentioned the US’s baseline 10% tariff on imports would increase costs and additional stress gross sales volumes.

Final Tuesday, arabica espresso rose to a  2-1/2 month excessive, and robusta posted a 5-week excessive on concern a couple of smaller Brazilian espresso crop.  On April 22, Rabobank predicted Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica espresso crop would fall -13.6% y/y to 38.1 million luggage, citing dry climate in key arabica-growing areas that considerably lowered flowering of espresso timber.  On April 9, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s March inexperienced espresso exports fell -26% y/y to 2.95 million luggage.  

Espresso costs are supported by lackluster rainfall final week in Brazil.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica espresso rising space of Minas Gerais, acquired 1.5 mm of rain within the week ended April 26, or 21% of the historic common.  

Robusta espresso discovered help on Tuesday when Vietnam’s Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported that Vietnam’s 2025 Jan-Apr espresso exports have been down -9.8% y/y to 663,000 MT.

Robusta espresso has help from lowered robusta manufacturing.  Resulting from drought, Vietnam’s espresso manufacturing within the 2023/24 crop 12 months dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in 4 years.  Additionally, Vietnam’s Basic Statistics Workplace reported that 2024 Vietnam espresso exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT.  On Tuesday, Vietnam’s Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported that Vietnam’s 2025 Jan-Apr espresso exports are down -9.8% y/y to 663,000 MT.  As well as, the Vietnam Espresso and Cocoa Affiliation on March 12 reduce its 2024/25 Vietnam espresso manufacturing estimate to 26.5 million luggage from a December estimate of 28 million luggage.   Conversely, Rabobank predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 robusta espresso crop would climb +7.3% y/y to a file 24.7 million luggage.

Information of bigger international espresso exports is bearish for costs.  Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil’s 2024 espresso exports rose +28.8% y/y to a file 50.5 million luggage.  Nonetheless, ICO reported Friday that 2024/25 Oct-Mar international espresso exports fell -2.1% y/y to 67.73 million luggage.

The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was combined for espresso costs.  The USDA’s International Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world espresso manufacturing in 2024/25 will improve +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million luggage, with a +1.5% improve in arabica manufacturing to 97.845 million luggage and a +7.5% improve in robusta manufacturing to 77.01 million luggage.  The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending shares will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million luggage from 22.347 million luggage in 2023/24.  Individually, the USDA’s FAS on November 22 projected Brazil’s 2024/25 espresso manufacturing at 66.4 MMT, beneath its earlier forecast of 69.9 MMT.  The USDA’s FAS tasks Brazil’s espresso inventories at 1.2 million luggage on the finish of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.

For the 2025/26 advertising 12 months, Volcafe on December 17 reduce its 2025/26 Brazil arabica espresso manufacturing estimate to 34.4 million luggage, down by about 11 million luggage from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an prolonged drought in Brazil.  Volcafe tasks a worldwide 2025/26 arabica espresso deficit of -8.5 million luggage, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive 12 months of deficits. 

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