August Nymex pure fuel (NGQ25) on Tuesday closed down -0.073 (-2.20%).

Aug nat-gas costs prolonged Monday’s sharp losses on Tuesday and posted a 1.5-week low on the outlook for cooler US temperatures, which might curb nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers for air-con utilization.  Forecaster Vaisala on Tuesday stated forecasts shifted cooler for the Midwest within the latter half of the July 27-31 interval, and milder circumstances are anticipated to proceed for August 1-5 over a lot of the US.  

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Expectations for larger US nat-gas manufacturing are additionally weighing on nat-gas costs after final Friday’s weekly report from Baker Hughes confirmed that the variety of lively US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending July 18 rose by +9 to a 17-month excessive of 117 rigs.

Decrease-48 state dry fuel manufacturing on Tuesday was 107.2 bcf/day (+3.9% y/y), based on BNEF.  Decrease-48 state fuel demand on Tuesday was 78.1 bcf/day (-2.8% y/y), based on BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday had been 14.9 bcf/day (-1.1% w/w), based on BNEF.

A rise in US electrical energy output is optimistic for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers.  The Edison Electrical Institute reported final Wednesday that complete US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended July 12 rose +1.1% y/y to 98,133 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending July 12 rose +2.4% y/y to 4,248,982 GWh.

Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was barely bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 11 rose +46 bcf, above the consensus of +45 bcf and the 5-year common of +41 bcf for the week.  As of July 11, nat-gas inventories had been down -4.9% y/y, however had been +6.2% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling satisfactory nat-gas provides.  As of July 17, fuel storage in Europe was 65% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 73% full for this time of 12 months.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of lively US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending July 18 rose by +9 to a 17-month excessive of 117 rigs.  Up to now ten months, the variety of fuel rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. 

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