September Nymex pure gasoline (NGU25) on Wednesday closed down -0.014 (-0.51%).

Sep nat-gas costs on Wednesday settled decrease and matched Tuesday’s 9.25-month nearest-futures low.  Nat-gas costs have retreated over the previous month as summer season climate cooled and the US boosted its nat-gas manufacturing.  Forecaster Atmospheric G2 mentioned Wednesday that forecasts shifted cooler throughout a lot of the US for August 25-29, which is able to curb nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to energy air-con.

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Ramped-up US nat-gas manufacturing is one other bearish issue for costs.  Final Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day.  The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast.  US nat-gas manufacturing is at the moment close to a document excessive, with lively US nat-gas rigs lately posting a 2-year excessive.

US (lower-48) dry gasoline manufacturing on Wednesday was 107.5 bcf/day (+5.2% y/y), in accordance with BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Wednesday was 79.5 bcf/day (+6.4% y/y), in accordance with BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday had been 14.8 bcf/day (-7.4% w/w), in accordance with BNEF.

As a supportive issue for gasoline costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended August 16 rose +7.1% y/y to 99,160 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending August 16 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,264,139 GWh.

The consensus is that Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will enhance by +18 bcf for the week ended August 15, beneath the five-year common for the week of +35 bcf.

Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was barely bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 1 rose +56 bcf, barely above the consensus of +54 bcf and nicely above the 5-year weekly common of +33 bcf.  As of August 8, nat-gas inventories had been down -2.4% y/y, however had been +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling enough nat-gas provides.  As of August 18, gasoline storage in Europe was 74% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 82% full for this time of yr.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of lively US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending August 15 fell by -1 to 122 rigs, slipping a bit farther from the 2-year excessive of 124 rigs posted on August 1.  Prior to now yr, the variety of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. 

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