July Nymex pure gasoline (NGN25) on Wednesday closed down by -0.131 (-3.70%).

July nat-gas costs on Wednesday prolonged this week’s slide and fell to a 2-week low.  Costs are decrease on forecasts for cooling US temperatures and the outlook for US nat-gas provides to stay plentiful.  The Commodity Climate Group stated Wednesday that the outlook is for a cool-down within the jap half of the US for the later interval of June 20-July 4 behind a chilly entrance, which ought to curb nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to run air-con.  

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One other bearish issue is the consensus is for Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories to climb by 88 bcf for the week ended June 20, above the five-year common of +79 bcf for his time of yr.  

An easing of geopolitical dangers can also be bearish for nat-gas costs as a result of Israel-Iran ceasefire.  The ceasefire reduces the chance that Iran will shut the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt LNG shipments by that Strait, which accounts for roughly 20% of world LNG commerce.  

Decrease-48 state dry gasoline manufacturing on Wednesday was 105.9 bcf/day (+2.9% y/y), in response to BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Wednesday was 79.9 bcf/day (-0.4% y/y), in response to BNEF.  LNG internet flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday had been 14.7 bcf/day (+9.2% w/w), in response to BNEF.

A decline in US electrical energy output is damaging for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers.  The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that complete US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended June 21 fell -3.1% y/y to 91,334 GWh (gigawatt hours), though US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending June 21 rose +2.6% y/y to 4,243,923 GWh.

Final Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was combined for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 13 rose +95 bcf, under expectations of +97 bcf however properly above the 5-year common construct for this time of yr of +72 bcf.  As of June 13, nat-gas inventories had been down -8.0% y/y and +6.1% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling ample nat-gas provides.  In Europe, gasoline storage was 57% full as of June 23, versus the 5-year seasonal common of 66% full for this time of yr.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending June 20 fell by -2 to 111 rigs, barely under the 15-month excessive of 114 rigs from June 6.  Up to now 9 months, gasoline rigs have risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted in September 2024. 

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