August Nymex pure gasoline (NGQ25) on Wednesday closed down by -0.126 (-3.77%).

Aug nat-gas costs on Wednesday tumbled to a 6-week low and settled sharply decrease on account of cooler US climate forecasts and the outlook for increased nat-gas inventories.   Forecaster Vaisala mentioned Wednesday that forecasts shifted cooler within the Midwest for July 14-18 and climate outlooks shifted cooler for the japanese half of the US for July 19-23.  The cooler temperatures ought to scale back nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to energy air con.

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The outlook for increased US nat-gas inventories can also be bearish for costs.  The consensus is that Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will climb by +61 bcf for the week ended July 4, above the five-year common for this time of 12 months of +53 bcf.

Decrease-48 state dry gasoline manufacturing on Wednesday was 105.3 bcf/day (+3.6% y/y), in response to BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Wednesday was 77.5 bcf/day (-8.6% y/y), in response to BNEF.  Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday had been 15.0 bcf/day (+0.9% w/w), in response to BNEF.

A rise in US electrical energy output is constructive for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers.  The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that complete US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended July 5 rose +1.0% y/y to 93,747 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending July 5 rose +2.4% y/y to 4,247,938 GWh.

Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 27 rose +55 bcf, above the consensus of +49 bcf however beneath the 5-year common for the week of +61 bcf.  As of June 27, nat-gas inventories had been down -5.8% y/y, however had been +6.2% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling ample nat-gas provides.  As of July 6, gasoline storage in Europe was 61% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 70% full for this time of 12 months.

Baker Hughes reported final Thursday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending July 4 fell by -1 to 108 rigs, barely beneath the 15-month excessive of 114 rigs posted on June 6.  Previously 9 months, the variety of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. 

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