June Nymex pure fuel (NGM25) on Friday closed up by +0.203 (+5.65%).

June nat-gas costs on Friday rallied to a 4-week excessive and settled sharply larger on the outlook for above-normal US temperatures to spice up electrical energy demand for air-con.  On Friday, forecaster Xweather stated temperatures shall be above regular within the jap half of the US via Might 18, boosting nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to energy elevated air-conditioning utilization.  

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Decrease-48 state dry fuel manufacturing Friday was 105.4  bcf/day (+5.1% y/y), based on BNEF.  Decrease-48 state fuel demand Friday was 66.0 bcf/day (-6.4% y/y), based on BNEF.  LNG internet flows to US LNG export terminals Friday had been 15.3 bcf/day (+4.0% w/w), based on BNEF.

A rise in US electrical energy output is optimistic for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers.  The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that whole US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended Might 3 rose +1.2% y/y to 74,373 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending Might 3 rose +3.7% y/y to 4,253,707 GWh.

Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended Might 2 rose +104 bcf, above expectations of +101 bcf and nicely above the 5-year common construct for this time of yr of +79 bcf.  As of Might 2, nat-gas inventories had been down -16.5% y/y and +1.4% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling enough nat-gas provides.  In Europe, fuel storage was 41% full as of Might 5, versus the 5-year seasonal common of 51% full for this time of yr.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending Might 9 was unchanged at 101 rigs, modestly above the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024.  Lively rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/2 yr excessive of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era document low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (information since 1987). 

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