The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) right this moment is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.28%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.22%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.23%. 

Shares are climbing right this moment, with the Nasdaq 100 posting a brand new all-time excessive.  Energy within the Magnificent Seven know-how shares is supporting features within the total market.  Inventory buyers are awaiting recent information on commerce offers and tariffs.  President Trump mentioned he would replace the commerce standing of seven nations this morning, with extra bulletins later within the day. Barely decrease bond yields are optimistic for shares, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2 bp to 4.38%. 

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Features in shares are restricted as President Trump vowed to push ahead along with his aggressive tariff regime, stressing he wouldn’t provide extra extensions on country-specific tariffs set to take impact on August 1.  Mr. Trump additionally said that he would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper merchandise and that drug corporations might face tariffs as excessive as 200% on imports if they do not relocate manufacturing to the US inside the subsequent 12 months.  As well as, regardless of stating that the US was near a commerce take care of India, Mr. Trump mentioned he would nonetheless impose a ten% tariff on India’s items for his or her participation in BRICS, a gaggle of growing nations he claimed had been “set up to hurt” the US.   

US MBA mortgage functions rose +9.4% within the week ended July 4, with the acquisition mortgage sub-index up +9.4% and the refinancing sub-index up +9.2%.  The typical 30-year mounted fee mortgage fell -2 bp to six.77% from 6.79% within the prior week.

US Might wholesale commerce gross sales unexpectedly fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m enhance and the most important decline in 4 months.

Client and producer worth experiences from China confirmed that demand stays sluggish and deflationary pressures persist.  China’s June PPI fell -3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.2% y/y, the most important decline in practically two years, and the thirty third consecutive month producer costs have contracted.  In the meantime, China’s June CPI unexpectedly rose +0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of a -0.1% y/y decline however nonetheless a weak report.

One other hurdle for shares is the upcoming earnings season, which begins this week.  Bloomberg Intelligence knowledge present that the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 corporations is for an increase of +2.8% year-over-year, the smallest enhance in two years.  Additionally, solely six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to publish a rise in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, in accordance with Yardeni Analysis.

This week’s market focus will primarily be on new tariff and commerce deal information forward of right this moment’s deadline.  Later right this moment, the minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC assembly will probably be launched. On Thursday, weekly preliminary unemployment claims will probably be launched.  Additionally, on Thursday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly communicate on the US financial system and financial coverage.

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the probabilities at 7% for a -25 bp fee minimize on the July 29-30 FOMC assembly.

Abroad inventory markets right this moment are blended.   The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 1-month excessive and is up +1.22%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 9-month excessive and closed down -0.13%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed up +0.33%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) right this moment are up +8 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield is down -2.4 bp at 4.376%.  Sep T-notes are climbing right this moment on some brief protecting forward of right this moment’s 10-year T-note public sale and the minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC assembly. Features in T-notes are restricted by concern that US tariff will increase might increase inflation and forestall the Fed from reducing rates of interest.  Moreover, provide pressures are unfavorable for T-notes, because the Treasury will public sale $39 billion of 10-year T-notes later right this moment and $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds on Thursday.  Tuesday’s 3-year T-note public sale noticed smooth demand from buyers.

European authorities bond yields right this moment are shifting decrease.  The ten-year German bund yield is down -1.7 bp at 2.669%.  The ten-year UK gilt yield is down -3.0 to 4.603%.

ECB Governing Council member Holzmann mentioned, “There’s no reason at the moment why the ECB should cut interest rates, definitely not at the next meeting, and also for the rest of the year.”

Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 3% for a -25 bp fee minimize by the ECB on the July 24 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

The Magnificent Seven shares are all buying and selling increased right this moment, led by a acquire of greater than +1% in (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta Platforms (META).

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) right this moment is down greater than -1% after Tuesday’s rally of +2.6%.  Goldman Sachs mentioned it expects US copper imports to speed up within the coming weeks as an incentive to “front-run” the anticipated 50% US copper import tariff. Sep Nymex copper costs are down about -3% right this moment, giving again a part of Tuesday’s +13.1% surge on President Trump’s intent to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports.  Southern Copper (SCCO) is down greater than -3% and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) is down -0.5%. Nevertheless, Newmont Corp (NEM) is up greater than +1%.

AES Corp (AES) is up greater than +16% to guide gainers within the S&P 500 on a newswire report that the corporate is exploring a possible sale amid takeover curiosity. 

Bloom Vitality (BE) is up greater than +15% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the inventory to obese from impartial with a worth goal of $33.

Boeing (BA) is up greater than +3% to guide gainers within the Dow Jones Industrials after it delivered 60 plane in June, probably the most in 18 months. 

Doximity (DOCS) is up greater than +2% after Evercore ISI upgraded the inventory to outperform from in keeping with a worth goal of $70. 

Aehr Take a look at Techniques (AEHR) is down greater than -14% after reporting This fall income of $14.1 million, down -15% y/y. 

Hershey (HSY) is down greater than -4% to guide losers within the S&P 500 as a scarcity of cocoa powder has lifted cocoa powder costs to close a file, curbing chocolate demand and consuming into firm income.

Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) is down greater than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the inventory to promote from impartial with a worth goal of $14. 

Illumina (ILMN) is down greater than -3% after Citigroup downgraded the inventory to promote from impartial with a worth goal of $80.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is down greater than -2% to guide losers within the Dow Jones Industrials after the Wall Avenue Journal reported the Division of Justice is probing the corporate’s Medicare billing practices. 

T-Cell US (TMUS) is down greater than -1% after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the inventory to underweight from sector weight with a worth goal of $200. 

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) is down about -1% after Citigroup downgraded the inventory to impartial from purchase.

Merck (MRK) will purchase UK-based biotech Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA) in a $10 billion deal.  Verona’s US-listed ADRs are up greater than +20% on the information, whereas Merck is up +2%.

Earnings Studies (7/9/2025)

AZZ Inc (AZZ), Barnes & Noble Schooling Inc (BNED), Bassett Furnishings Industries Inc (BSET), Gencor Industries Inc (GENC), Methode Electronics Inc (MEI), Pure Cycle Corp (PCYO).

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