The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Tuesday closed down -0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -0.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.21%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) fell -0.30%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) fell -0.22%.

Inventory indexes gave up early positive factors on Tuesday and settled decrease.  Lengthy liquidation pressures weighed on shares Tuesday forward of a number of market-moving occasions this week, together with the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC assembly on Wednesday and post-meeting feedback from Fed Chair Powell, earnings outcomes from 4 megacap tech firms on Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday’s month-to-month US jobs report. 

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Inventory indexes on Tuesday initially moved larger, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new file highs.  Higher-than-expected quarterly company earnings outcomes and constructive commerce information are supporting positive factors in shares.  Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated a 90-day extension of a commerce truce with China was a possible consequence with negotiations between the 2 international locations underway in Stockholm.  Shares additionally discovered some assist from Tuesday’s US financial information that confirmed the Jun advance items commerce deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$86.0 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$98.0 billion, a constructive issue for Q2 GDP.

Nonetheless, shares fell again on different combined US financial information that confirmed Jun JOLTS job openings fell greater than anticipated, however the Jul shopper confidence index rose greater than anticipated.  Additionally, a -7% fall in UnitedHealth Group weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Common after it reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and forecasted full-year adjusted EPS beneath consensus.

M&A exercise was additionally supportive of shares after Union Pacific agreed to amass Norfolk Southern for about $85 billion, or round $320 a share.  Additionally, Baker Hughes acquired Chart Industries for $9.6 billion, or about $210 a share.

The US Might S&P CoreLogic composite-20 house value index rose +2.79% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.91% and the smallest tempo of improve in 1.75 years.

US Jun JOLTS job openings fell -275,000 to 7.437 million, weaker than expectations of seven.500 million.

The Convention Board US Jul shopper confidence index rose +2.0 to 97.2, stronger than expectations of 96.0.

The markets this week will give attention to any information of latest commerce offers earlier than Friday’s deadline. The two-day FOMC assembly started on Tuesday, and the Fed is predicted to maintain the fed funds goal vary unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% when the assembly ends on Wednesday.  Additionally on Wednesday, the Jul ADP employment change is predicted to climb by +80,000.  Lastly, on Wednesday, Q2 GDP is predicted to develop by +2.4% (q/q annualized) and the Q2 core PCE value index is predicted to ease to +2.3% from +3.5% in Q1.  On Thursday, preliminary weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment value index is predicted to extend by 0.8%.  Additionally, Jun private spending is predicted to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun private revenue is predicted to rise +0.3% m/m.  As well as, the Jun core PCE value index, the Fed’s most popular inflation gauge, is predicted to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.  Lastly, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is predicted to extend by +1.6 to 42.0.  On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to extend by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment price is predicted to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%.  Additionally, Jul common hourly earnings are anticipated +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. As well as, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is predicted to extend by +0.2 to 49.5.  Lastly, the College of Michigan Jul shopper sentiment index is predicted to be unrevised at 61.8. 

The markets are awaiting President Trump’s August 1 deadline for commerce offers to keep away from excessive tariffs.  On July 16, Mr. Trump introduced that he intends to ship a tariff letter to greater than 150 international locations, notifying them that their tariff charges may very well be 10% or 15%, efficient August 1.  As an replace, Mr. Trump final Wednesday stated, “We’ll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” a sign that the ground for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he wouldn’t go beneath 15%. 

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp price lower at 2% on the Tue/Wed FOMC assembly and 66% on the following assembly on September 16-17.

This week kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with 38% of the shares within the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the quantity reported final week. The earnings outcomes of Magnificent Seven members shall be entrance and heart, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.  Early outcomes present that S&P 500 earnings are on monitor to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, higher than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, in line with Bloomberg Intelligence.  With a few third of S&P 500 corporations having reported, round 82% exceeded revenue estimates. 

Abroad inventory markets on Tuesday settled combined.  The Euro Stoxx 50 closed up +0.78%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.33%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed down -0.79%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) on Tuesday closed up +19 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield fell -7.8 bp to 4.332%.  Sep T-notes rallied to a 1-week excessive Tuesday, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.5-week low of 4.322%.  T-notes moved larger on Tuesday after the Jun JOLTS job openings fell greater than anticipated, a dovish issue for Fed coverage.  T-notes prolonged their positive factors Tuesday afternoon on robust demand for the Treasury’s $44 billion public sale of 7-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of two.79, effectively above the 10-auction common of two.64 and the very best in additional than 12 years. 

European authorities bond yields on Tuesday had been combined.  The ten-year German bund yield rose +1.9 bp to 2.708%. The ten-year UK gilt yield fell from a 1-week excessive of 4.681% and completed down -1.4 bp to 4.633%.

The ECB’s Jun 1-year inflation expectations eased to +2.6% from 2.8% in Might.  The ECB’s Jun 3-year inflation expectations had been unchanged from Might at +2.4%.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 14% for a -25 bp price lower by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Whirlpool (WHR) closed down greater than -13% after reporting Q2 internet gross sales of $3.77 billion, beneath the consensus of $3.85 billion, and reducing its full-year EPS forecast to $6.00-$8.00 from a earlier estimate of about $10, effectively beneath the consensus of $8.78. 

Provider International (CARR) closed down greater than -10% to steer losers within the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year free money stream of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, the midpoint beneath the consensus of $2.55 billion. 

United Parcel Service (UPS) closed down greater than -10% after it pulled steerage for the yr, citing “current macro-economic uncertainty.”

Brown & Brown (BRO) closed down greater than -10% after reporting Q2 natural income rose +3.60%, weaker than the consensus of +5.63%.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed down greater than -8% to steer losers within the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 checkout volumes rose 5% q/q, down from a 6% improve in Q1, with firm executives saying they had been seeing softer retail spending on account of the US tariff wars. 

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) closed down greater than -7% to steer losers within the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08, weaker than the consensus of $4.59, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of at the least $16, effectively beneath the consensus of $20.40.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) closed down greater than -7% after reporting Q2 internet gross sales of $3.95 billion, weaker than the consensus of $4.00 billion. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed down greater than -5% after forecasting Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.55-$5.65, weaker than the consensus of $5.84. 

Amkor Expertise (AMKR) closed up greater than +18% after reporting Q2 internet gross sales of $1.51 billion, higher than the consensus of $1.42 billion, and forecast Q3 internet gross sales of $1.88 billion-$1.98 billion, effectively above the consensus of $1.76 billion. 

Chart Industries (GTLS) closed up greater than +16% after Baker Hughes acquired the corporate for $13.6 billion, or about $210 a share.

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) closed up greater than +14% after US regulators advisable that sufferers who can stroll be allowed to take the corporate’s gene remedy Elevidys once more.

Corning (GLW) closed up greater than +11% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 core EPS of 60 cents, above the consensus of 57 cents, and forecasting Q3 core EPS of 63 cents-67 cents, higher than the consensus of 62 cents. 

Cadence Design Methods (CDNS) closed up greater than +9% to steer gainers within the Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q2 income of $1.28 billion, above the consensus of $1.25 billion, and raised its full-year income forecast to $5.21 billion-$5.27 billion from a earlier estimate of $5.15 billion-$5.23 billion, stronger than the consensus of $5.20 billion.

CBRE Group (CBRE) closed up greater than +7% after reporting Q2 income of $9.75 billion, stronger than the consensus of $9.43 billion, and elevating its full-year core EPS estimate to $6.10-$6.20 from a earlier estimate of $5.80-$6.10. 

Common Well being Companies (UHS) closed up greater than +5% after reporting Q2 internet income of $4.28 billion, higher than the consensus of $4.23 billion, and elevating its full-year internet income estimate to $17.10 billion-$17.31 billion from a earlier estimate of $17.02 billion-$17.36 billion.

Earnings Reviews (7/30/2025)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Align Expertise Inc (ALGN), Allstate Corp/The (ALL), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Electrical Energy Co Inc (AEP), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Computerized Information Processing Inc (ADP), AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB), Bunge International SA (BG), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Cognizant Expertise Options (CTSH), Dexcom Inc (DXCM), eBay Inc (EBAY), Entergy Corp (ETR), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Further House Storage Inc (EXR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Honest Isaac Corp (FICO), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Ford Motor Co (F), Fortive Corp (FTV), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), GE HealthCare Applied sciences Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Hologic Inc (HOLX), Host Inns & Resorts Inc (HST), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX Corp (IEX), Illinois Instrument Works Inc (ITW), Invitation Properties Inc (INVH), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Lam Analysis Corp (LRCX), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MGM Resorts Worldwide (MGM), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Mid-America House Communities (MAA), Previous Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), Prudential Monetary Inc (PRU), PTC Inc (PTC), Public Storage (PSA), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW), Trane Applied sciences PLC (TT), Tyler Applied sciences Inc (TYL), UDR Inc (UDR), Ventas Inc (VTR), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), WEC Power Group Inc (WEC), Western Digital Corp (WDC).

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