The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) as we speak is up +0.25%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.58%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.21%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.56%. 

Inventory indexes as we speak are principally increased, with the S&P 500 posting a 4-month excessive and the Nasdaq 100 posting a brand new all-time excessive.  Shares are awaiting the second day of testimony from Fed Chair Powell concerning the economic system.  Diminished geopolitical dangers within the Center East have boosted market sentiment and prompted a risk-on for asset markets because the ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to be holding. 

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US MBA mortgage functions rose +1.1% within the week ended June 20, with the acquisition mortgage sub-index down -0.4% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +3.0%. The common 30-year fastened price mortgage rose +4 bp to six.88% from 6.84% within the prior week.

Late Tuesday night, Kansas Metropolis Fed President Schmid acknowledged that the present “wait and see” financial coverage posture is suitable, because the Fed ought to wait to see how tariffs and different insurance policies impression the economic system earlier than adjusting rates of interest.

The markets this week will watch to see if the ceasefire holds between Israel and Iran. Additionally, any new tariff information or commerce offers will probably be scrutinized.  Later as we speak, Mr. Powell will testify earlier than the Senate Banking Committee on financial coverage.  Additionally, US Mar new residence gross sales are anticipated to fall -6.7% m/m to 693,000.  On Thursday, Q1 GDP is anticipated to be unrevised at -0.2% (q/q annualized).  Additionally, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to be unchanged at 245,000. Friday brings Could private spending (anticipated +0.1% m/m) and Could private revenue (anticipated +0.3% m/m). Additionally on Friday, the Could core PCE value index, the Fed’s most well-liked value gauge, is anticipated to rise by +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y.  Lastly, Friday’s June College of Michigan US client sentiment index is anticipated to be revised decrease by -0.2 factors to 60.3. 

The markets are discounting the probabilities at 21% for a -25 bp price minimize on the July 29-30 FOMC assembly.

Abroad inventory markets as we speak are blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.39%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 6-1/4 month excessive and closed up +1.04%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed up +0.39%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) as we speak are down -6 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield is up +2.4 bp to 4.318%.  Sep T-notes fell from a 1-1/2 month excessive as we speak and are transferring decrease, and the 10-year T-note yield rebounded from a 1-1/2 month low of 4.275%.  T-notes are beneath stress as we speak on unfavorable carryover from weak point in European authorities bonds.  Additionally, hawkish feedback from Kansas Metropolis Fed President Schmid undercut T-notes when he stated the Fed ought to wait to see how tariffs and different insurance policies impression the economic system earlier than adjusting rates of interest.  Provide pressures are unfavorable for T-notes forward of the Treasury’s $28 billion public sale of 2-year floating price notes and the $70 billion public sale of 5-year T-notes later as we speak. 

European authorities bond yields as we speak are transferring increased.  The ten-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week excessive of two.575% and is up +3.1 bp to 2.574%.  The ten-year UK gilt yield rebounded from a 1-1/2 month low of 4.440% and is up +1.8 bp to 4.490%.

Eurozone Could new automobile registrations rose +1.6% y/y to 927,000, the largest improve in 5 months.

Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 9% for a -25 bp price minimize by the ECB on the July 24 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Power within the Magnificent Seven shares is offering help to the broader market. Nvidia (NVDA) is up greater than +2%.  Additionally, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) are up greater than +1%.  As well as, Microsoft (MSFT) is up +0.58%, Amazon.com (AMZN) is up +0.40%, and Meta Platforms (META) is up +0.09%. Tesla (TSLA) is bucking the pattern and is down greater than -2% after reporting Could European deliveries fell -28% y/y. 

Tremendous Micro Laptop (SMCI) is up greater than +6% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 after GF Securities Ltd initiated protection of the inventory with a purchase advice and a value goal of $59. 

Symbotic (SYM) is up greater than +5% after Arete initiated protection on the inventory with a purchase advice and a value goal of $50. 

Coinbase World (COIN) is up greater than +4% after Bernstein raised its value goal on the inventory to $510 from $310. 

Stellantis NV (STLA) is up greater than +4% after Jefferies upgraded the inventory to purchase from maintain with a value goal of $13.20. 

Yum!  Manufacturers (YUM) is up greater than +4% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the inventory to chubby from impartial with a value goal of $162. 

Paychex (PAYX) is down greater than -7% to steer losers within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting This fall adjusted EPS of $1.19 and matching estimates. 

FedEx (FDX) is down greater than -5% after forecasting Q1 adjusted EPS of $3.40 to $4.000, weaker than the consensus of $4.03, and stated it gained’t present a revenue outlook for the fiscal yr as a result of unsure world demand. 

QXO Inc. (QXO) is down greater than -6% after asserting a public providing of 89.9 million shares of its widespread inventory at a value to the general public of $22.25 per share, under Tuesday’s closing value of $23.51.

Basic Mills (GIS) is down greater than -3% after reporting This fall internet gross sales of $4.56 billion, under the consensus of $4.59 billion.

NuScale Energy Corp (SMR) is down greater than -2% after BTIG LLC downgraded the inventory to impartial from purchase.

WEC Power (WEC) is down greater than -1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the inventory to promote from impartial with a value goal of $100.

Earnings Experiences (6/25/2025)

Daktronics Inc (DAKT), Basic Mills Inc (GIS), HB Fuller Co (FUL), Jefferies Monetary Group Inc (JEF), Micron Expertise Inc (MU), MillerKnoll Inc (MLKN), Novagold Sources Inc (NG), Paychex Inc (PAYX), Steelcase Inc (SCS), Winnebago Industries Inc (WGO), Worthington Metal Inc (WS).

On the date of publication,

Wealthy Asplund

didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and information on this article is solely for informational functions.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the writer and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.