The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) immediately is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.24%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.12%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.29%.

Inventory indexes are climbing immediately on indicators of resilience within the US financial system.  The labor market stays wholesome after the July ADP employment change rose greater than anticipated and posted its largest enhance in 4 months.  Additionally, financial exercise rebounded after Q2 GDP expanded greater than anticipated.  Positive aspects in shares are restricted because the markets are awaiting the results of immediately’s FOMC assembly and post-meeting feedback from Fed Chair Powell.  Additionally, Microsoft and Meta Platforms are set to launch their earnings after immediately’s shut. 

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The US July ADP employment change rose +104,000, stronger than expectations of +76,000 and the most important enhance in 4 months.  Additionally, the Jun ADP employment change was revised upward to -23,000 from the beforehand reported -33,000.

US Q2 GDP rose +3.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +2.6%.  The Q2 core PCE value index rose +2.5% q/q, stronger than expectations of +2.3% q/q.

US MBA mortgage purposes fell -3.8% within the week ending July 25 with the acquisition mortgage sub-index down -5.8% and the refinancing sub-index down -1.1%.  The typical 30-year fastened charge mortgage fell -1 bp to six.83% from 6.84% within the prior week.

The Treasury mentioned in its quarterly refunding announcement that it anticipates holding the scale of its word and bond auctions unchanged “for at least the next several quarters,” and can rely extra on the shortest-dated securities to fund the federal deficit not less than till 2026.

Within the newest tariff information, President Trump immediately mentioned he’ll impose a tariff charge of 25% on India beginning August 1 and prompt he would add an extra penalty over the nation’s power purchases from Russia.

The markets this week will give attention to any information of latest commerce offers earlier than Friday’s deadline. The Fed is predicted to maintain the fed funds goal vary unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% when the FOMC assembly ends later immediately.  On Thursday, preliminary weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to rise by 6,000 to 223,000, and the Q2 employment price index is predicted to extend by 0.8%. Additionally, Jun private spending is predicted to climb +0.4% m/m and Jun private earnings is predicted to rise +0.2% m/m. As well as, the Jun core PCE value index, the Fed’s most popular inflation gauge, is predicted to climb +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.  Lastly, on Thursday, the Jul MNI Chicago PMI is predicted to extend by +1.6 to 42.0. On Friday, Jul nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to extend by +109,000 and the Jul unemployment charge is predicted to rise by +0.1 to 4.2%.  Additionally, Jul common hourly earnings are anticipated +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y.  As well as, the Jul ISM manufacturing index is predicted to extend by +0.2 to 49.5.  Lastly, the College of Michigan Jul shopper sentiment index is predicted to be unrevised at 61.8. 

The markets are awaiting President Trump’s August 1 deadline for commerce offers to keep away from excessive tariffs.  On July 16, Mr. Trump introduced that he intends to ship a tariff letter to greater than 150 nations, notifying them that their tariff charges could possibly be 10% or 15%, efficient August 1.  As an replace, Mr. Trump final Wednesday mentioned, “We’ll have a straight, simple tariff of anywhere between 15% and 50%,” a sign that the ground for tariffs is rising and suggesting that he wouldn’t go beneath 15%. 

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities for a -25 bp charge minimize at 2% at immediately’s FOMC assembly and 59% on the following assembly on September 16-17.

This week kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with 38% of the shares within the S&P 500 reporting quarterly earnings, double the quantity reported final week. The earnings outcomes of Magnificent Seven members might be entrance and heart, with Microsoft and Meta Platforms reporting after immediately’s shut and Apple and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.  Early outcomes present that S&P 500 earnings are on observe to rise +4.5% for the second quarter, higher than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y, based on Bloomberg Intelligence.  With a few third of S&P 500 companies having reported, round 82% exceeded revenue estimates. 

Abroad inventory markets immediately are blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.29%.  China’s Shanghai Composite rallied to a 9.5-month excessive and closed up +0.17%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 closed down -0.05%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) immediately are down -9 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield is up +5.3 bp to 4.372%.  Sep T-notes fell from a 3.5-week excessive immediately and turned decrease, and the 10-year T-note yield rose from a 3.5-week low of 4.313% and moved larger. T-notes erased early beneficial properties immediately on indicators of power within the US labor market after the July ADP employment change rose greater than anticipated.  T-notes prolonged their losses after Q2 GDP expanded greater than anticipated.  Quick masking forward of the outcomes of immediately’s FOMC assembly is limiting losses in T-notes.

European authorities bond yields immediately are shifting decrease.  The ten-year German bund yield is down -0.6 bp to 2.702%.  The ten-year UK gilt yield is down -2.7 bp to 4.606%.

Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.1% q/q and +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.2% y/y.

Eurozone July financial confidence rose +1.6 to a 5-month excessive of 95.8, stronger than expectations of 94.5.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 13% for a -25 bp charge minimize by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Teradyne (TER) is up greater than +14% to guide gainers within the S&P 500 after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of 57 cents, higher than the consensus of 54 cents.

Marvell Expertise (MRVL) is up greater than +9% to guide gainers within the Nasdaq 100 after Morgan Stanley raised its value goal on the inventory to $80 from $73.

VF Corp (VFC) is up greater than +11% after reporting Q1 internet income of $1.80 billion, properly above the consensus of $1.70 billion.

Etsy (ETSY) is up greater than +8% after reporting Q2 gross merchandise gross sales of $2.81 billion, higher than the consensus of $2.77 billion.

Generac Holdings (GNRC) is up greater than +7% after reporting Q2 internet gross sales of $1.06 billion, higher than the consensus of $1.03 billion.

Humana (HUM) is up greater than +5% after reporting Q2 adjusted ESP of $6.27, stronger than the consensus of $5.74, and elevating its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $17.00 from a earlier estimate of $16.25, properly above the consensus of $16.35.

Hershey (HSY) is up greater than +4% after reporting Q2 internet gross sales of $2.61 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.52 billion.

Starbucks (SBUX) is up greater than +1% after reporting Q3 internet income of $9.50 billion, above the consensus of $9.29 billion. 

Verify Level Software program (CHKP) is down greater than -10% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.37, proper on expectations. 

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is down greater than -8% to guide losers within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it agreed to purchase CyberArk for $25 billion in money and inventory. 

Seagate Expertise (STX) is down greater than -7% after forecasting Q1 income of $2.50 billion plus or minus $150 million, weaker than the consensus of $2.52 billion. 

Previous Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is down greater than -7% after reporting Q2 EPS of $1.27, beneath the consensus of $1.29.

Trane Applied sciences (TT) is down greater than -7% after reporting Q2 internet income of $5.75 billion, beneath the consensus of $5.77 billion. 

Entegris Inc. (ENTG) is down greater than -7% after reporting Q2 adjusted gross margin of 44.6%, beneath the consensus of 45.1%. 

SoFi Applied sciences (SOFI) is down greater than -7% after promoting 71.9 million shares of its widespread inventory in an underwritten public providing at $20.85 a share, beneath Tuesday’s closing value of $22.40. 

Mondelez Worldwide (MDLZ) is down greater than -3% after reporting Q2 North American natural income fell -3.4%, weaker than expectations of -1.83%, citing elevated cocoa prices. 

Earnings Reviews (7/30/2025)

Albemarle Corp (ALB), Align Expertise Inc (ALGN), Allstate Corp/The (ALL), Altria Group Inc (MO), American Electrical Energy Co Inc (AEP), American Water Works Co Inc (AWK), Computerized Information Processing Inc (ADP), AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB), Bunge World SA (BG), CH Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW), Cognizant Expertise Options (CTSH), Dexcom Inc (DXCM), eBay Inc (EBAY), Entergy Corp (ETR), Equinix Inc (EQIX), Everest Group Ltd (EG), Additional House Storage Inc (EXR), F5 Inc (FFIV), Honest Isaac Corp (FICO), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Ford Motor Co (F), Fortive Corp (FTV), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), GE HealthCare Applied sciences Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Hologic Inc (HOLX), Host Resorts & Resorts Inc (HST), Humana Inc (HUM), IDEX Corp (IEX), Illinois Device Works Inc (ITW), Invitation Properties Inc (INVH), Kraft Heinz Co/The (KHC), Lam Analysis Corp (LRCX), Meta Platforms Inc (META), MGM Resorts Worldwide (MGM), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Mid-America Condominium Communities (MAA), Previous Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL), Prudential Monetary Inc (PRU), PTC Inc (PTC), Public Storage (PSA), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW), Trane Applied sciences PLC (TT), Tyler Applied sciences Inc (TYL), UDR Inc (UDR), Ventas Inc (VTR), Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK), VICI Properties Inc (VICI), WEC Vitality Group Inc (WEC), Western Digital Corp (WDC).

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