The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) Friday closed up +0.52%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.00%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.39%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.42%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.34%. 

Inventory indexes Friday settled increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 3-3/4 month excessive.  Optimistic commerce information buoyed shares Friday because the US strikes nearer to commerce offers with China and different buying and selling companions.  Shares additionally discovered assist on Friday after the College of Michigan’s US June shopper sentiment index improved, as inflation expectations unexpectedly declined. 

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US Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned that the US and China had finalized a commerce understanding reached final month in Geneva, together with a dedication from China to ship uncommon earth supplies.  China’s Commerce Ministry additionally confirmed the settlement and acknowledged that it’ll assessment and approve eligible functions for the export of managed objects, and the US will cancel the restrictive measures taken in opposition to China.  As well as, Commerce Secretary Lutnick mentioned the White Home has imminent plans to achieve agreements with a set of 10 main buying and selling companions forward of a July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs.  In the meantime, the Treasury Division introduced a take care of G-7 nations that can exclude US firms from some taxes imposed by different nations in change for eradicating the “revenge tax” proposal from President Trump’s tax invoice.

Nonetheless, shares fell again from their greatest ranges on Friday afternoon after President Trump introduced he was ending all commerce talks with Canada over its digital providers tax and threatened to impose new tariffs on the nation throughout the subsequent week. Positive aspects in shares had been additionally restricted on Friday’s weaker-than-expected US Could private spending and earnings experiences, in addition to the stronger-than-expected Could core PCE worth index.

US Could private spending unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m enhance.  Could private earnings unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the most important decline in additional than 3-1/2 years.

The US Could core PCE worth index, the Fed’s most well-liked gauge of underlying inflation, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.6% y/y.

The College of Michigan US Jun shopper sentiment index was revised upward by +0.2 to 60.7, stronger than expectations of no change at 60.5.

The College of Michigan US Jun 1-year inflation expectations had been unexpectedly revised decrease to five.0%, weaker than expectations of an upward revision to five.2%. The 5-10 12 months inflation expectations had been revised downward to 4.0%, weaker than expectations of no change at 4.1%.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari mentioned he sees two 25-bp Fed price cuts this 12 months, with the primary probably in September, however warned that tariffs might have a delayed affect on inflation, and policymakers ought to stay versatile.

On the unfavourable aspect for shares is the upcoming earnings season, which begins in two weeks.  Bloomberg Intelligence knowledge present the consensus for Q2 earnings of S&P 500 firms to rise by 2.8% year-over-year, the smallest enhance in two years.  Additionally, solely six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are projected to put up a rise in earnings, the fewest since Q1 of 2023, based on Yardeni Analysis.

Federal funds futures costs are discounting the possibilities at 19% for a -25 bp price reduce on the July 29-30 FOMC assembly.

Abroad inventory markets on Friday settled blended.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 1-1/2 week excessive and closed up +1.56%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%.  Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 climbed to a 5-month excessive and closed up +1.43%.

Curiosity Charges

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) Friday closed down by -6.5 ticks.  The ten-year T-note yield rose +4.3 bp to 4.285%. 

T-note costs had been underneath stress on Friday as a consequence of some unfavourable carryover from weak point in European authorities bonds.  Additionally, optimistic commerce information on Friday pushed the S&P 500 to a brand new document excessive and decreased safe-haven demand for T-notes.  As well as, the stronger-than-expected Could core PCE worth index, the Fed’s most well-liked gauge of underlying inflation, is unfavourable for T-notes. 

Losses in T-notes had been restricted as a result of sudden declines within the US Could private spending and earnings experiences, dovish elements for Fed coverage.  Additionally, the sudden downward revision to the College of Michigan US inflation expectations is bullish for T-notes.  As well as, dovish feedback on Friday from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari had been supportive of T-notes, as he acknowledged that he sees two 25-bp Fed price cuts this 12 months.

European authorities bond yields on Friday moved increased.  The ten-year German bund yield rose to a 1-month excessive of two.606% and completed up +2.3 bp to 2.592%.  The ten-year UK gilt yield rose +3.2 bp to 4.504%.

The Eurozone Jun financial confidence survey unexpectedly fell -0.8 to 94.0, weaker than expectations of unchanged at 94.8.

Swaps are discounting the possibilities at 7% for a -25 bp price reduce by the ECB on the July 24 coverage assembly.

US Inventory Movers

Nike (NKE) closed up greater than +15% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials after reporting This autumn income of $11.10 billion, higher than the consensus of $10.72 billion, and saying it’s taking steps to mitigate tariffs, together with “surgical” worth will increase and lowering manufacturing in China. 

Apogee Enterprises (APOG) closed up greater than +6% after elevating steerage on its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.80-$4.20 from a earlier forecast of $3.55-$4.10. 

Optimistic credit score information lifted cruise line shares on Friday after Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings introduced it efficiently upsized its current senior secured revolving credit score facility from $1.7 billion to $2.486 billion, and Moody’s upgraded Carnival’s long-term company score to Ba2 from Ba3.  Because of this, Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) closed up greater than +4% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) closed up greater than +3%. 

Boeing (BA) closed up greater than +5% after Redburn upgraded the inventory to purchase from impartial with a worth goal of $275.

Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up greater than +2% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the inventory to outperform from impartial with a worth goal of $254.

Alphabet (GOOGL) closed up greater than +2% after Residents JMP Securities LLC upgraded the inventory to outperform from market carry out with a worth goal of $220. 

Commerce Desk (TTD) closed up greater than +2% after Evercore ISI upgraded the inventory to outperform from consistent with a worth goal of $90.   

Palantir Applied sciences (PLTR) closed down greater than -9% to steer losers within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Canada introduced a tax on digital enterprise from  the US.  Coinbase International (COIN) additionally closed down greater than -5% on the information.   

Gold mining shares are underneath stress right this moment, with the worth of COMEX gold falling to a 4-week low.  Because of this, Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU) closed down greater than -5%, and Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) and Newmont (NEM) closed down greater than -3%.   

CorMedix (CRMD) closed down greater than -16% after asserting it intends to supply and promote $85 million of shares of its widespread inventory in an underwritten public providing.

Uber Applied sciences (UBER) closed down greater than -1% after Canaccord Genuity downgraded the inventory to carry from purchase.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) closed down greater than -1% on indicators of insider promoting after an SEC submitting confirmed the corporate’s CEO, President, CFO, and CAO offered a mixed $19.9 million of shares on Monday. 

Earnings Stories (6/30/2025)

B Riley Monetary Inc (RILY), Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI), Golden Matrix Group Inc (GMGI), Outside Holding Co (POWW), Progress Software program Corp (PRGS).

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