October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) is down -0.09 (-0.53%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is up +1.00 (+0.21%).

NY sugar costs in the present day are buying and selling decrease on some lengthy liquidation stress after the 3-session rally to a 2-month excessive on Tuesday.

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Sugar costs rallied by way of Tuesday on smaller sugar provides from Brazil.  Covrig Analytics stated final Friday that stories of smaller cane yields from Brazil’s sugar farmers might knock Brazil’s 2025/26 sugarcane manufacturing beneath 600 MMT, a lot decrease than Brazilian authorities crop forecasting company Conab’s forecast of 663.4 MMT.  

An extreme brief place by funds may exacerbate any short-covering rally in sugar futures.  Final Friday’s weekly Dedication of Merchants (COT) report confirmed funds elevated their net-short positions in NY sugar futures by +25,923 positions to 151,004 brief positions within the week ending August 5, essentially the most in nearly 6 years.

Final Tuesday, sugar costs fell to 5-week lows on indicators of stronger sugar manufacturing in Brazil.  On July 31, Unica reported Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the first half of July rose +15% y/y to three.4 MMT.  Additionally, the quantity of sugarcane being crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills has elevated to 54% from 50% the identical time final 12 months.

The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is damaging for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as considerable monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop.  India’s Meteorological Division reported Tuesday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 500.8 mm as of August 4, or 4% above regular.  Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation stated final Thursday that it’s going to search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.

The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs.  On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage.  That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).  

Sugar costs retreated by way of early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season.  On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT international sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the biggest surplus in 8 years.  On Could 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT, with international sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.

Sugar costs even have assist from decreased sugar manufacturing in Brazil.  Unica reported final Thursday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Heart-South sugar output by way of mid-July fell by -9.2% y/y to fifteen.655 MMT.  Final month, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, stated 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields as a consequence of drought and extreme warmth.

The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs.  On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.

The Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) raised its 2024/25 international sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year excessive of -5.47 MMT on Could 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT.  This means a tightening market following the 2023/24 international sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT.  ISO additionally minimize its 2024/25 international sugar manufacturing forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT.  

The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT.  The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s International Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT  FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT as a consequence of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage.  FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

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