December arabica espresso (KCZ25) at present is up +8.00 (+2.12%), and November ICE robusta espresso (RMX25) is up +54 (+1.12%).

Espresso costs are climbing at present however stay under Thursday’s 3.5-month highs.  Espresso costs have rallied sharply over the previous 4 weeks on account of tighter provides issues about climate situations in Brazil.  ICE robusta espresso inventories fell to a 1-month low of 6,552 heaps on Thursday.  Additionally, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 714,936 luggage on Thursday.  In the meantime, Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing space, Minas Gerais, obtained no rain throughout the week ended August 23.  Studies of injury to a few of Brazil’s espresso crop from final week’s frost are additionally boosting costs.

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Espresso costs even have assist on account of issues about tighter US espresso provides, as American patrons are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian espresso beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazilian exports to the US.  That is tightening the espresso provide within the US market, as a few third of unroasted espresso comes from Brazil.

Lowered exports from Brazil are supporting costs.  On August 6, Brazil’s Commerce Ministry reported that Brazil’s July unroasted espresso exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT.  In associated bullish information launched final Wednesday, Brazil’s inexperienced espresso exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million luggage, in keeping with exporter group Cecafe.  Cecafe reported that July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, whereas robusta exports plunged -49% y/y.  Cecafe stated Brazil’s July espresso exports fell -28% to 2.7 million luggage, and that espresso shipments throughout Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million luggage.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for espresso costs after Brazil’s Cooxupe espresso co-op introduced Tuesday that the harvest amongst its members was 91.3% full as of August 22.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest espresso cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.  Individually, Safras & Mercado reported final Friday that Brazil’s general 2025/26 espresso harvest was 99% full as of August 20, forward of the comparable stage of 98% final yr.  The breakdown confirmed that 100% of the robusta harvest and 98% of the arabica harvest have been full as of August 20.

As a bearish issue, the Worldwide Espresso Group (ICO) reported August 6 that world June espresso exports rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million luggage.  Nevertheless, cumulative Oct-Jun espresso exports have been down -0.2% y/y at 104.14 million luggage.

Because of drought, Vietnam’s espresso manufacturing within the 2023/24 crop yr decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in 4 years.  Additionally, Vietnam’s Basic Statistics Workplace reported that 2024 Vietnam espresso exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT.   Moreover, the Vietnam Espresso and Cocoa Affiliation decreased its 2024/25 Vietnam espresso manufacturing estimate to 26.5 million luggage on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million luggage.  In contrast, the Vietnam Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported final Tuesday that Vietnam’s Jan-Jul 2025 espresso exports have been up +6.9% y/y to 1.05 MMT.

The USDA’s Overseas Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world espresso manufacturing in 2025/26 will enhance by +2.5% y/y to a document 178.68 million luggage, with a -1.7% lower in arabica manufacturing to 97.022 million luggage and a +7.9% enhance in robusta manufacturing to 81.658 million luggage.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing will enhance by +0.5% y/y to 65 million luggage and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year excessive of 31 million luggage.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending shares will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million luggage from 21.752 million luggage in 2024/25.  Nevertheless, Volcafe is projecting a worldwide 2025/26 arabica espresso deficit of -8.5 million luggage, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive yr of deficits. 

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