October Nymex pure gasoline (NGV25) on Tuesday closed up +0.012 (+0.40%).

Oct nat-gas costs on Tuesday posted a 4-week excessive and closed larger.  Nat-gas costs have carryover assist from final Thursday when the EIA reported that US nat-gas provides as of August 22 had been down -3.5% from the identical time final 12 months.

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Nevertheless, nat-gas costs fell again from their greatest ranges on forecasts for cooler late summer season US climate that may curb nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to energy air-con.  On Tuesday, forecaster Atmospheric G2 mentioned forecasts shifted cooler for the northern half of the US for September 7-11 and that below-average temperatures will persist for the East for September 12-16.  

Pure gasoline costs have been underneath strain over the previous 2.5 months, dropping to a 9.5-month low in nearest-futures costs final Monday, as forecasts for cooler late-summer climate emerged and as US gasoline manufacturing stays close to a report excessive.  

Ramped-up US nat-gas manufacturing is one other bearish issue for costs.  On August 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day.  The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast.  US nat-gas manufacturing is at the moment close to a report excessive, with energetic US nat-gas rigs not too long ago posting a 2-year excessive.

US (lower-48) dry gasoline manufacturing on Tuesday was 107.0 bcf/day (+4.8% y/y), in accordance with BNEF.  Decrease-48 state gasoline demand on Tuesday was 71.2 bcf/day (+1.2% y/y), in accordance with BNEF.  Estimated LNG internet flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday had been 15.2 bcf/day (+0.3% w/w), in accordance with BNEF.

As a supportive issue for gasoline costs, the Edison Electrical Institute reported final Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended August 23 rose +7.7% y/y to 95,130 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending August 23 rose +3.1% y/y to 4,270,960 GWh.

Final Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 22 rose +18 bcf, beneath the consensus of +27 bcf and nicely beneath the 5-year weekly common of +38 bcf.  As of August 22, nat-gas inventories had been down -3.5% y/y, however had been +5.0% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling enough nat-gas provides.  As of August 31, gasoline storage in Europe was 78% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal common of 85% full for this time of 12 months.

Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending August 29 fell by -3 to 122 rigs, slightly below the 2-year excessive of 124 rigs posted on August 1.  Previously 12 months, the variety of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. 

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